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Prediction for CME (2023-01-15T03:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-01-15T03:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/23321/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the E/SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an eruption and subsequent M6.0 flare from AR 3191 seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery starting around 2023-01-15T03:20Z. Opening of field lines is visible off the eastern limb in SDO AIA 171 at this time, and post-eruptive dimming appears around 03:45Z in SDO AIA 193. Arrival is characterized by a sharp increase in magnetic field components with B total reaching 15 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from 387 km/s at 2023-01-17T20:53Z to 488 km/s at 2023-01-18T02:08Z. Additional increases in density and temperature. Signature is still developing and analysis is ongoing. This arrival may also be associated with CME: 2023-01-14T21:36Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-01-17T21:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-01-17T10:34Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-01-15 07:08
 - Time at C2: 2023-01-15 03:48
 - Radial speed: 1024.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 29 deg
 - Eruption location: S19E44
 Inferences:
   - Associated flare: M6.0 (S23E32). Peak at 2023-01-15 03:08
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 709.14 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2023-01-17 10:34 (i.e. predicted transit time: 54.78 hours)
Lead Time: 47.83 hour(s)
Difference: 10.60 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2023-01-15T21:20Z
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